Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Don't Believe the Media -- Obama Hasn't Won Anything Yet
In one of the worst cases of media irresponsibility I've seen in a long time, the AP and NBC are reporting that Obama has finally won the nomination. WIth Clinton winning South Dakota, and Obama not having enough delegates from the states to clinch the deal, the superdelegates are still going to be the ones to determine the outcome of the race. They are basing their declaration that Obama won on a report that enough superdelegates have declared for Obama for him to win. Big deal. That means nothing. A declaration that you are going to vote one way or another in two months amounts to nothing. There were several states where Obama was polling better than he actually did in those states. Further, a lot can happen between how and August. Does anyone really think the Clintons are going to sit around for two months and wish for the best? Of course not. They are going to work to find some major dealbreaker to encourage the superdelegates to vote for her instead. And they will be working all the superdelegates the whole time as well. Obama hasn't won anything yet.
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No doubt American journalists are a herd, and no doubt the headlines, if not the stories, deserve qualifiers, but it's really not substantively different from the crowning of McCain. Of course, in both cases, no convention has been held yet (and I recognize Republicans do not have the superdelegate system). Let's see if the press uses equal adjectives now (presumptive) for Obama and McCain. Logistically speaking, I have to disagree with you: Billary are done. (Thanks for your note at Albatross Dreams. I know that at least in Germany the percentage increase was small because the prices, including [consumption] taxes were already high, which in my view has been the right move.)
The difference between Obama and McCain, though, is that McCain has enough delegates who have to vote for him to have the nomination. Obama does not. The news media are declaring him the winner with what the superdelegates are declaring that they will do. It is possible that that they say they'll do and what they'll actually do are two different things. Also, people can change their minds in two months. The Clintons are famous for their dirty tricks. Don't count them out until the votes are actually tallied.
Those supers have flip flopped before, who is to say they will not again. I thought the media said it was not going to do stuff like this after the 2000 election. Oh, how memories fade.
What ever happens, this has been the most fun watching an election that I have had. Historians and political writers will be talking about this for a long time.
One thing I learned watching this is that I like the idea of proportional representation in delegates precisely because it results in a long campaign resulting in a real choice rather than a coronation. Another thing I learned, though, is that I hate the idea of superdelegates. The Democrats figured out how to be both more representational and more elitist at the same time.
What about media reports that Hillary has said she would be Obama's VP ? Are they distorting that as her position, or is she actually making such statements as part of a plan to ultimately win ?
I was gearing up for two more months of an acerbic primary campaign, and Obama was suddenly pronounced the nominee by every major media station.
It seemed like one network got bored with the campaign, decided to call it for Sen. Obama, and the other reporters followed suit.
This, of course, started a superdelegate slide that tipped the scale in Obama's favor, and now it looks like Sen. Clinton is going to concede defeat.
When the news happens this fast, I often wonder how much was directly caused by the news reporting itself.
I think you're on to something Books. Now, Clinton keeps denying she wants to be V.P., but you know how it is in politics -- if her people are saying it, it's probably true. There are likely to be a few things happening. She's probably angling to exchange concession for being named V.P. However, keep in mind that conceding is just a politeness -- it has no effect on her delegates. It wouldn't surprise me if there was 2 months of behind the scenes work to dig up something terrible on Obama. Of course, being associated with racist preachers and Leftist bombers isn't actually going to dissuade Democrats. It's going to have to be something really bad.
Of course, Republicans could really clinch it for her if they began running against Obama right now, attacking his positions, making a big deal of his associating with terrorists like Ayers, etc. If the Republicans could get Obama's polling numbers around 40% by the time of the DNC convention, Clinton could have the leverage to convince the superdelegates he can't win.
Of course, it seems like McCain plans to run a powderpuff campaign, so she may be out of luck with that scenario.
I've definitely lost whatever trust I had in political candidates. We'll see what Senator Clinton says during her speech on Saturday - I'm not ruling out any possibilities for the upcoming four months.
Either way, this general election is going to be ugly. In the words of one of McCain's aides, "Swift boat veterans time four, on both sides."
And don't forget the fact that the Libertarian Party just nominated the strongest LP candidate in LP history. That should make things really interesting.
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